September 3, 2019

Looking Forward to the Week Ahead

I hope you have all enjoyed your Labor Day weekend.  I just want to give you a head’s up on what to expect this week:
 
More Tariffs – President Trump hit China with 15% tariffs on $110 billion of China goods over the weekend, so despite both sides set to get back to the negotiating table later this month, investors are riding the see-saw once again.
 
More Unrest – protests escalate in Hong Kong which came in the wake of Beijing rejecting an application from Hong Kong authorities to withdraw the extradition bill.  
 
More Oil – OPEC announced an 80,000 barrel per day production increase, while global demand keeps dropping.
 
More Rate Cuts – the markets have now fully priced in a Fed cut in September.  The CME FedWatch Tool is showing a 95% probability for a 25bp reduction on September 18th and a 5% probability of a 50bp reduction.
 
More weather instability – Hurricane Dorian is now a Category 5 Hurricane and depending on where it makes landfall could be the difference in millions or billions worth of damage to areas along the U.S. Atlantic coastline. 
 
LET’S PRAY FOR EVERYONE’S SAFETY!!
 
SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR US AND THE MARKETS?  
 
MORE VOLATILITY 
 
We must embrace it and I look forward to starting off September with a bang.  
 
Have a great week everyone!
 
Scott

Follow me on Twitter @CboeSIB

 

about the author:

Scott Bauer

A respected market commentator seen on Bloomberg, Fox Business, CNBC and other major financial networks, Scott Bauer has 25 plus years of professional equity and index options experience at the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and as a Vice-President/trader for Goldman Sachs. Scott graduated with Honors from the University of Illinois Business School and has taught classes both at his alma mater and at the CBOE.

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