September 9, 2019

What A Difference A Week Makes!

I hope you all enjoyed the Football Sunday of the season!  All of us here in Chicago are lamenting the start of the Bears season and we hope you’re season starts off on a much better note!
Well – what a difference a week makes!
Last week, we saw an escalation in Hong Kong which has now temporarily been resolved.  Hurricane Dorianfortunately impacted the U.S much less than expected, but we still pray for all those being affected.  And maybe in the most important news of the week, the U.S. and China now have a timetable set for their next round of tariff negotiations.  All of this helped combine to launch the markets towards ALL TIME HIGHS!  So what is next?  This week is filled with huge global economic data that can help make or break this rally.
Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting is the highlight of the week.  It is a near certainty that the ECB will approve a new stimulus package to help a faltering economy.  With the threat of a no-deal Brexit still festering, even with talk of another possible delay, the upcoming U.K. jobs data will be closely watched for further signs of weakness.
The above mentioned Brexit uncertainty:  Another three month extension looks extremely likely after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s efforts to take Britain out of the European Union on October 31st with or without a deal have faltered.
How will the latest round of Chinese economic numbers affect their monetary policy as their economy continues to weaken?  Reports on inflation and factory prices will be released on Tuesday and could offer some key insight into whether more policy easing is needed.
Now that unemployment figures are behind us the next key release will be Friday’s retail sales figures.  Though we saw a big rally in many retailers last week there are still fears that the increased tariffs will raise the prices Americans pay just before the holiday shopping season.
Continued yield curve inversion as U.S. Treasury yields have fallen in step with a global bond market rally.  What will the Fed do at the September 17-18 Policy Meeting?

Follow me on Twitter @CboeSIB

about the author:

Scott Bauer

A respected market commentator seen on Bloomberg, Fox Business, CNBC and other major financial networks, Scott Bauer has 25 plus years of professional equity and index options experience at the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and as a Vice-President/trader for Goldman Sachs. Scott graduated with Honors from the University of Illinois Business School and has taught classes both at his alma mater and at the CBOE.

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