With global central banks pointing towards more dovish policy signals, the ECB’s Governing Council meeting in Vilnius was the event of the day. Traders are now betting on a cut in the next year, only months after a raise had been the consensus. Traders are now focused on what the renewed TLTRO program will look like. “The conceivable range for the spread (for the negative rate) is between 0 bps and -40 bps,” said Natixis’s Dirk Schumacher. “A small spread would imply that the new TLTROs are predominantly meant to provide a backstop. A high spread would signal that the ECB sees a need to stimulate bank lending.”
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