September 18, 2018

Medtronic Is Not Feeling So Well

China has no choice but to retaliate against the latest round of U.S. tariffs, the country’s Commerce Ministry said as Vice Premier Liu He convened a meeting in Beijing to discuss the government’s response. Stocks across the globe are shaking off the news, with some considering the announcement baked into prices, while others expect the U.S. economy to ride out the impact for now. “Tariffs on another $200B will mean about 12% of U.S. imports have seen a tariff hike. That means an average tariff increase of 1.6% across all imports, so tiny compared to the 1930s, when they were 20%,” said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital Investors.

*Source:  Seeking Alpha

Let’s consider Medtronic PLC (Ticker: MDT):

The VantagePoint platform recently indicated downside momentum.

Using the predictive indicators embedded within the VantagePoint platform and its predictive AI technology, we will point out three significant things. We have a bearish crossover indicated by the blue predictive indicator line crossing below the black simple moving average on September 17th.  We can combine that with the VantagePoint propriety neural index indicator moving from the GREEN to the RED on that same day.  This indicator measures strength and weakness for a 48-hour period, in this case, weakness.  The move to the RED position further makes the case for a potentially bearish scenario. We also have the predicted high and low below yesterday’s actual high and low indicating further weakness.  I want to play the VP continued bearish indication.

Strategy Discussion

For active traders with a shorter investment time horizon, you can consider a setup utilizing options. Given the market conditions outlined above, taking a passive, premium credit approach may be the best path to success.

Because of the reasons given above, the sale of a credit call spread may be one way to approach this situation.  You want to collect as much premium as you can for as little time as possible while at the same time staying within your risk tolerances.  You may want to consider the MDT September 28th weekly expiration 97.5/98 call spread, selling it for $0.20.  The most you can make is the premium collected and the most you can lose is the width of the spread less any premium collected.  Max reward = $0.20 and max risk = $0.30

This means that you are laying odds of 1.5:1.

Given the trading and market environment outlined above, a trader must evaluate whether this reward/risk ratio is appropriate for his/her risk tolerance.

If you would like to learn more about the VantagePoint platform and take advantage of the exclusive offer that our clients enjoy, please visit:

https://discover.vantagepointsoftware.com/prosper-demo/

about the author:

Mike Shorr

Since 1994, Michael has been an on-the-floor market maker, Vice-President of Interest Rate Derivatives for Knight Financial Products and Director of Education and Options Instructor at Trading Advantage. He makes the oftentimes complex world of options and trading accessible to the novice and advanced trader alike. Michael has a Bachelor of Science degree in Statistics and Finance from the University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana. He presently is Director, Trader Education at ProsperTradingAcademy.

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