The Trump administration is reportedly set to announce a new round of tariffs on as much as $200B in Chinese goods, while Beijing considers scrapping upcoming trade talks in response. The duties will be set at 10%, below the 25% level announced in early August, to diminish the impact on U.S. consumers ahead of the holiday shopping season and before midterm elections. Global shares are edging down on the news, while the Shanghai Composite closed at its lowest level since 2014.*Source: Market Watch
Let’s consider ConocoPhillips (Ticker: COP):
The VantagePoint platform recently indicated upside momentum.
Using the predictive indicators embedded within the VantagePoint platform and its predictive AI technology, we will point out four significant things. We have a bullish crossover indicated by the blue predictive indicator line crossing above the black simple moving average on September 13th. We can combine that with the VantagePoint propriety neural index indicator moving from the RED to the GREEN on September 7th. This indicator measures strength and weakness for a 48-hour period, in this case, strength. The move to the GREEN position further makes the case for a potential bullish scenario. We also have the predicted high and low above yesterday’s actual high and low indicating further strength. Add to that all three predictive differences are positively sloped. I want to play the VP continued bullish indication.
Strategy Discussion
For active traders with a shorter investment time horizon, you can consider a setup utilizing options. Given the market conditions outlined above, taking an active, premium debit approach may be the best path to success.
Because of the reasons given above, the purchase of a debit call spread may be one way to approach this situation. You will first want to calculate your target strike. In order to do this, you will need three pieces of data: current price, expiration date and the implied volatility associated with that expiration date. For COP, that yields a targeted strike of ~$80.00. You may want to consider the COP October 19th regular monthly expiration 77.5/80 call spread, buying it for $0.50. The most you can lose is the premium paid and the most you can gain is the width of the spread less any premium paid. Max risk = $0.50 and max reward = $2.00.
This means that you are getting odds of 4.00:1.
Given the trading and market environment outlined above, a trader must evaluate whether this reward/risk ratio is appropriate for his/her risk tolerance.
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